How to Trade MicroStrategy’s Painful Plunge: The Levels Every Investor Must Watch

On November 21, 2024, Citron Capital shorted MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR). What made this confrontation particularly electrifying was the clash between two titans: Citron, a legendary short seller, and MicroStrategy, arguably the strongest stock of 2024.

Why did Citron short MicroStrategy? Citron called its $91 billion valuation a reckless Bitcoin bubble. MSTR began buying Bitcoin in 2020; it currently owns 1.7% of the global Bitcoin supply and some analysts expect the company to own 4% by 2033. Citron viewed MSTR’s Bitcoin hoarding as a leveraged gamble that could implode if Bitcoin falters.

To see the impact of MSTR’s crypto trade, look at the correlation between the stocks and the crypto on a weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF MICROSTRATEGY. The Correlation Coefficient in the bottom panel shows how MSTR strongly correlates with Bitcoin. MSTR has also outperformed the S&P 500 ($SPX).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stellar rise in MSTR from a low of $43-and-change in January to a high of $543 in November has been anything but smooth and steady. MicroStrategy is a business analytics company that provides exposure to both AI and Bitcoin (due to its heavy accumulation). It’s like two trades in one. StockCharts’s Correlation Coefficient indicator shows how correlated MSTR is to $BTCUSD. You will want to keep an eye on this: if Bitcoin rises or falls, it will likely affect MSTR’s stock price.

You can also see MSTR’s relative performance against the S&P 500 ($SPX). Currently, it’s outperforming the broad index by over 300%. Overvalued and risky? That’s Citron’s take, and you can see the plunging effect of Citron’s thesis as it took action in the market.

Nevertheless, MSTR still ranks within the Top 10 of StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) report, its technical strength holding its measured position despite the big short and the risk it entails.

FIGURE 2. SCTR REPORT ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2024. MSTR is fourth from the top, with a SCTR score of 99.5.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If this remains true, might the stock experience a bounce, attracting prospective bulls to enter positions at perceived discount levels? If so, where? Let’s shift to a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF MSTR. Note how the swing points correspond cleanly with the Fibonacci Retracement lines.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Drawing Fibonacci Retracement levels from the August low to the November high, you can better contextualize the pullback to see where bullish investors may be looking for entry points. Note that I circled each level to highlight each potential support area.

One place that buyers may be looking for an early bounce is at the swing high point right above $380, which coincides with the Fib 38.2% retracement. While some buyers might have jumped in, that level may be too aggressive an entry as the price is looking to break below it. The next potential support levels are the swing low between $318 and $320, which converges with the Fib 50% line, and, below that, the October swing high near $267, which is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level.

Should any of these points trigger a bounce, check volume and buying pressure as a potential indicator for institutional support. Right now, if you look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), you can see that sellers are firmly in control of the stock (see green circle). You will want to see that situation reverse, with the CMF line crossing above the zero line.

Your Next Action Steps

While watching these levels, do the following:

• Add MSTR to your ChartLists. This ensures you can have the chart handy with all key levels when monitoring it.
• Set a price alert for when the price crosses below $323. Once it crosses below this level, prepare for a potential bounce somewhere between $318 and $320. You could also set a second alert for when the price crosses above $375, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This could be an entry point for a potential upside move.
• Also, keep an eye on the CMF; if there’s a bounce, you’ll want to see buyers taking control of the market.

This should give you ample time to observe and respond, assessing whether the technical context signals a buy or a wait-and-see. You can also check the fundamental story to see what’s happening with the stock, particularly if the technicals remain fuzzy.

At the Close

MicroStrategy’s meteoric rise in 2024, fueled by its double play on Bitcoin and AI, has made it a magnet for both bulls and skeptics. While Citron’s short position underscores bearish concerns about overvaluation and leverage risk, the stock’s technical strength and correlation with Bitcoin continue to attract bullish attention. Keep an eye on support levels and for any shift between buying/selling momentum. The technical levels above should map out the key areas to watch and key technical events to anticipate.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.